Daily Watchlist · Macro Market · Newsletter

Daily Newsletter – So, Who is the Winner?

That is what everyone wonders after the much-anticipated first Clinton-Trump debate. Polls were mixed but from a fundamental perspective, the right answer is probably Neither, as Michael Tracey eloquently explained in his Tweet.

debate.jpg

@mtracey – A quick thought on who “won” the debate, and why that’s a fundamentally useless question

12:09 PM – 27 Sep 2016

My two cents (or two yen since I live in Japan) is that Clinton was more composed throughout the debate, and one thing without a doubt is that she proved critics of her health wrong about whether she could last 90 minutes of debate non-stop. US equity markets and futures seemingly were panicking ahead of the debate, but dip buyers were at least temporarily the winners with S&P futures +13 as of 1am EST after being down as much as -10 (**but back to flat on weakness in Europe as of 9am EST).

20160927-DIA.png

Looking at the daily closes, DIA dumped right into the LT trendline support again, but likely gap back up towards 20DMA and 50DMA and ensures the ongoing trading range between 180.5 and 184 (broken wedge resistance) is intact. The short-term strategy is to continue trading the edges until one side breaks. There will be plenty of catalysts with more debates coming, as well as beginning of earning season.

Moving elsewhere, crude oil (+3.2%) was a big mover on speculation that a production deal is near among OPEC countries.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/oil-halts-advance-near-46-as-more-opec-members-back-output-deal

But on the bigger picture, we are simply oscillating within a very large wedge until one side breaks .

Across the pond, Deutsche Bank continues to be on the headlines, and plunged again today on news that the German government would not bail them out. As a former employee, I wish them luck that they are not the next Bear Stearn or worse like many said. Technically, things look dire with the break through the triple bottom.

20160927-DB.png

Day Ahead – Events and Economic Data

 

Time Event / Data
10am Consumer Confidence
11:15am FOMC Member Stanley Fischer speaks

 

 

 

Quantitative Strategy – Automated Portfolio Update

Performance

ASSET CLASS TYPE LONG/SHORT DAILY RETURN % MTD % QTD%
Equities

 

Short-Term

 

Long Only

Short Only

-0.67% 1.02% 5.11%
0.17% 1.12% -0.49%
    Long/Short -0.25% 1.06% 2.63%
  Medium-Term Long Only -0.40% 0.60% 9.04%
ETF Short-Term Long Only         -0.55%         5.17%         5.7%
    Short Only 0% 3.59% -3.70%
    Long/Short         -0.55%         4.75%         0.45%
  Medium-Term Long Only -0.69% 2.66% 4.65%
Futures Short-Term Long/Short         0.17%         2.65%         -1.7%
FX Short-Term Long/Short 0% 3.18% 3.62%
SPX Benchmark Index   -0.86% -1.14% 2.25%

Daily Trades

Equities Short-Term Long

SYMBOL NAME NEW/EXIT POSITION DAILY CLOSE INITIATE DATE INITIATE PRICE PNL WINGTREND SIGNAL PROJECTION AT INITIATION (2-WEEK)
GS Goldman Sachs Group New 161.48 2016-09-26 161.48 0% ·         2.67

-4.39

·         172.87

7.05%

*NUE Nucor Corp. New 48.92 2016-09-26 48.92 0% ·         0.11

-4.19

·         51.61

5.5%

CRM Salesforce.com Exit 70.19 2016-09-15 73.99 -5.14% ·         -10.75

-15.74

·         83.47

12.81%

CXO Concho Resources Exit 126.51 2016-09-13 124.52 +1.6% ·         16.51

-5.04

·         155.50

24.88%

GGP General Growth Properties Inc. Exit 28.66 2016-09-13 27.49 +4.26% ·         -0.12

-3.81

·         33.56

22.09%

WY Weyerhaeuser Corp. Exit 31.64 2016-09-13 30.00 +5.47% ·         3.07

2.46

·         36.77

22.56%

Equities Short-Term Short

SYMBOL NAME NEW/EXIT POSITION Exit Price INITIATE DATE INITIATE PRICE PNL
AIV Apartment Investment & Mgmt New 2016-09-26 47.59 0%
ETR Entergy Corp. New 2016-09-26 80.98 0%
LM Legg Mason New 2016-09-26 33.02 0%
AXP American Express Co Exit 63.42 2016-09-20 63.72 0.47%

Equities Medium-Term Long

SYMBOL NAME NEW/EXIT POSITION INITIATE DATE INITIATE PRICE PNL
GS Goldman Sachs Group New 2016-09-26 161.48 0%
LRCX Lam Research New 2016-09-26 91.41 0%

ETF Medium-Term Long

SYMBOL NAME NEW/EXIT POSITION INITIATE DATE INITIATE PRICE PNL
XLF SPDR Select Sector Fund – Financial New 2016-09-26 19.07 0%
XLE SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector Exit 2016-08-29 69.85 -3.59%

 

 

 

Chart in Focus

XLF – Medium-Term Long

Target: 19.5

Entry Point(s): 19.07

Comments: Retested descending breakout and filled gap from early August. Should bounce back towards 20DMA around 19.5

20160927-XLF.png


 

GS – Short-Term & Medium-Term Long

Target: 170

Entry Point(s): 160, 158

Comments: Plunged through 50DMA and in oversold conditions but should find solid support at descending trendline breakout area as well as 200DMA

20160927-GS.png


 

ETR – Short-Term Short

Target: 79

Entry Point(s): 81, 82

Comments: Broke to fresh swing highs but denied at previous broken uptrend before plunging back under breakout area. Short into rallies.

20160927-ETR.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day Trading Charts & Parameters

Futures

 

Dow 30

Support: 17840,18025                                                                                                                                    Resistance:18388

Comments: Most vulnerable index out of all as Dow is threatening to be first to break ST trendline. On a break, the early Sept lows will be tested very quickly and likely drag rest of indices down with it.

20160927-dowfut

S&P 500

Support: 2135, 2140                                                                                                                                       Resistance:2170

20160927-esfut

 

NDX 100

Support: 4760, 4805                                                                                                                         Resistance:4840, 4889

Comment: Struggle to get back above breakout area most debate, creating potential H&S pattern. A break of shoulder of 4805 would crumble to 4760 horizontal support

20160927-ndxfut

Crude Oil

Support: 44                                                                                                                                                     Resistance:4620160927-cl

 

Gold

Support: 1307-1315                                                                                                                                       Resistance: 1343

20160927-gc

10-Yr Treasury Note

Support: 130.90                                                                                                    Resistance: 132.23

20160927-ty

 

 

 


 

Nikkei 225

Support: 16250                                                                                                                   Resistance: 16745, 16800

20160927-nikk

 

Currency Pairs

USD/JPY

Support: 99, 100

Resistance: 102.3

20160927-usdjpy

EUR/USD

Support: 1.1144

Resistance: 1.1258

20160927-eurusd

 

 

GBP/CHF

Support: 1.2560

Resistance: 1.2588-1.2625

Comments: Looks to squeeze to 1.2700 as we broke out of steep wedge

20160927-gbpchf

 

 

 

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