Summary Financials are having the best year since 2013 with a +24% gain YTD on the back of Trump rally. Regression analysis suggests XLF is currently pricing in an aggressive 46% increase in dividend payout 1 year forward. Justification of XLF’s current valuation hinges on strong earnings growth and dividend payout ratio increase in its… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Great Hurdles Ahead for XLF

Summary The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since 2012 continues to track 1994-1999 closely in both price action and technical chart pattern. Continuation of the analog suggests a multi-month pullback in DXY before resuming higher to new highs. Yen and euro likely to rally in the short term vs. the U.S. dollar but would provide a… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Party Like It’s 1999 for US Dollar

Please note as of December 19, our commentaries are now published on Seeking Alpha. Below is summary and excerpt  – to read more please follow the link. Summary Despite levitating at record highs, SPY has more upside potential heading into 2017 based on the differential between prevailing dividend yield vs. 10yr real interest rates. Trailing… Continue reading Daily Commentary – S&P 500 Relative Value vs Bonds