Macro Market · Market Commentary · Trading Game Plan

Market Commentary – 4 Reasons to Long REITs in 2017

Summary Real Estate Investment Trusts (IYR) have underperformed S&P 500 (SPY) by about 7% on the back of higher interest rates during second half of 2016. Negative correlation between 10-year Treasury yields and IYR’s performance likely to diminish as real interest rates normalize higher. Strong dividend growth, higher inflation outlook, increased investor demand and positive… Continue reading Market Commentary – 4 Reasons to Long REITs in 2017

Macro Market · Market Commentary

Daily Commentary – Great Hurdles Ahead for XLF

Summary Financials are having the best year since 2013 with a +24% gain YTD on the back of Trump rally. Regression analysis suggests XLF is currently pricing in an aggressive 46% increase in dividend payout 1 year forward. Justification of XLF’s current valuation hinges on strong earnings growth and dividend payout ratio increase in its… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Great Hurdles Ahead for XLF

Macro Market · Market Commentary

Daily Commentary – Party Like It’s 1999 for US Dollar

Summary The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since 2012 continues to track 1994-1999 closely in both price action and technical chart pattern. Continuation of the analog suggests a multi-month pullback in DXY before resuming higher to new highs. Yen and euro likely to rally in the short term vs. the U.S. dollar but would provide a… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Party Like It’s 1999 for US Dollar

Macro Market · Market Commentary

Daily Commentary – S&P 500 Relative Value vs Bonds

Please note as of December 19, our commentaries are now published on Seeking Alpha. Below is summary and excerpt  – to read more please follow the link. Summary Despite levitating at record highs, SPY has more upside potential heading into 2017 based on the differential between prevailing dividend yield vs. 10yr real interest rates. Trailing… Continue reading Daily Commentary – S&P 500 Relative Value vs Bonds

Macro Market · Market Commentary · Newsletter

Daily Commentary – Pricing in the Dots

A hawkish FOMC announcement from Yellen & co wrapped up the last major risk event of the year, and it sent US Dollar and yields soaring higher to yet another high of the year. To recap, the Fed raised interest rate for the 2nd time post crisis as expected, though the highlight was the new… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Pricing in the Dots

Macro Market · Market Commentary · Newsletter · Portfolio Update

Weekly Commentary – The Grand Finale

Just 3 more weeks before 2016 draws to a close with only one major event ahead of us, which is none other than the FOMC announcement this coming Wednesday. US equities remain unstoppable since the breakout move last Wednesday and finished green the rest of the week to finish at the highs, as the SPX… Continue reading Weekly Commentary – The Grand Finale

Macro Market · Market Commentary · Newsletter

Daily Commentary – Another Early Xmas Present

Boom. An explosive move to the upside for US equity markets with the SPX up the most (+1.3%) since the beginning of the Trump Rally, and fresh new ATHs with the Dow less than 500pts away from 20000. Notably, the SPX converged with the Dow to break above ascending wedge and is now in escape… Continue reading Daily Commentary – Another Early Xmas Present