Daily Watchlist · Macro Market · Market Commentary · Newsletter

Daily Commentary – 3 Out of 3

Another positive market reaction in equity markets following a populist movement in the world. Brexit, Trump and Italy referendum. In other words, a 100% record that the stock market would rebound strongly after the initial panic move lower. By the time markets opened, futures were already solidly in the green, as SPX closed up 13pts north of 2200 once again. However, gains were capped by the broken uptrend that we have been following:

20161206-SPX.png

Small gaps (IWM) rocketed 1.7% while the financials (XLF) were surprisingly strong with a 1-stocks-rise-slightly-response-to-italy-referendum-muted-1480928318

As discussed yesterday, we were expecting a recovery though it was much quicker than we thought.  What is even more remarkable is Euro’s recovery off the bottom, with the EUR/USD launching almost 300pips from new YTD low just above 1.05 to near 1.08 as we speak. The move has strong technical implication, as the US Dollar index confirmed a bearish H&S pattern pointing to further downside towards the 99 handle. Also as pointed out in yesterday’s DXY chart, the overbought pullback most likely would stretch towards 50DMA area which is just under 99.

 

20161206-DXY.png

20161206-DXYintra.png

Even the Italian ETF (EWI) was able to close up 0.8%, and we will be watching if it can breakout descending down trend and 50WMA at 22.74 to confirm a LT buy signal.

20161206-EWI.png

Meanwhile, another rejection of the lows in Gold and it appears we are ready to take off to the upside towards the 1200 area.

20161206-GOLD.png

Other than that, relatively quiet day with no major change to the technical pictures we have been focusing on. Most of the action is in the currencies space, with EUR and GBP leading the way while USD and JPY lagged. For the GBP, we have been advocating going long for a while, and the near-term upside target is 1.286 area, a key swing point broken in October as well as top of ST ascending channel.

20161206-GBPUSD.png

 

Daily Market Snapshot

Sector ETFs by Daily Return %

SYMBOL NAME CLOSE DAILY (%) WTD % MTD %
IWM iShares Russell 2000 133.15  

2.25

1.70%

1.72% 1.17%
XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF 46.24  

0.63

1.37%

1.38% 1.16%
KRE SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF 53.68  

0.65

1.22%

1.23% 2.42%
XLF SPDR Select Sector Fund – Financial 22.92  

0.27

1.19%

1.19% 1.82%
XLY SPDR Select Sector Fund – Consumer Discretionary 82.33  

0.89

1.09%

1.09% 0.59%
SMH HOLDRS Merrill Lynch Semiconductor 69.46  

0.69

1%

1% -2.25%
XLK SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology 47.14  

0.45

0.96%

0.96% -0.76%
XLE SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector 75.49  

0.66

0.88%

0.88% 1.42%
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust 116.62  

0.95

0.82%

0.82% -0.76%
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund 75.04  

0.59

0.79%

0.79% 0.25%
XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR 50.37  

0.39

0.78%

0.78% 0.86%
XLG Rydex Russell Top 50 ETF 154.08  

1.06

0.69%

0.69% 0.06%
SPY SPDR S&P 500 221  

1.32

0.60%

0.60% 0.28%
IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology 271.93  

1.47

0.54%

0.54% -0.78%
DIA Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF 192.22  

0.48

0.25%

0.25% 0.43%
PFF iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Fund 37.08  

0.06

0.16%

0.16% -1.07%
XLU SPDR Select Sector Fund – Utilities 46.86  

0.06

0.13%

0.13% 0.24%
XLP SPDR Select Sector Fund – Consumer Staples 50.63  

0.06

0.12%

0.12% 0.10%
XLI SPDR Select Sector Fund – Industrial 62.76  

-0.05

-0.08%

-0.08% 0.56%
XLV SPDR Select Sector Fund – Health Care 68.29  

-0.12

-0.18%

-0.18% -0.67%
           

Commodity & Bond ETFs

SYMBOL NAME CLOSE DAILY  (%) WTD % MTD %
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund 19.77  

0.09

0.46%

0.46% -0.85%
SLV iShares Silver Trust 15.88  

0.05

0.32%

0.32% 1.40%
HYG iShares iBoxx $ HY Corp Bond Fund 85.6  

0.22

0.26%

0.26% -0.06%
LQD iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund 116.65  

0.25

0.21%

0.21% -0.16%
AGG iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund 108.11  

0.09

0.08%

0.08% -0.12%
TLT iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund 119.47  

-0.13

-0.11%

-0.11% -0.64%
GDX Market Vectors TR Gold Miners 21.33  

-0.04

-0.19%

-0.19% 2.40%
GLD SPDR Gold Trust 111.54  

-0.6

-0.54%

-0.54% -0.19%
USO United States Oil Fund 11.35  

-0.13

-1.14%

-1.13% 3.84%

Country ETFs

SYMBOL NAME CLOSE DAILY (%) WTD % MTD %
EWG iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund 25.34  

0.6

2.40%

2.43% 2.05%
EWN iShares MSCI Netherlands Index Fund 23.67  

0.5

2.14%

2.16% 0.59%
EWQ iShares MSCI France Index Fund 23.88  

0.49

2.07%

2.09% 1.83%
EWO iShares MSCI Austria Index Fund 16.4  

0.31

1.91%

1.93% 1.96%
EWD iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund 27.96  

0.52

1.88%

1.90% 1.71%
EWK iShares MSCI Belgium Index Fund 17.29  

0.32

1.87%

1.89% 0.93%
EWP iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund 25.63  

0.45

1.77%

1.79% 1.83%
EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund 32.12  

0.44

1.38%

1.39% -4.09%
EWL iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund 28.64  

0.33

1.16%

1.17% 1.02%
EWS iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund 21.67  

0.24

1.11%

1.12% 2.95%
EWW iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund 43.7  

0.48

1.10%

1.11% -0.95%
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund 35.41  

0.29

0.82%

0.83% -0.25%
EWI iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund 22.31  

0.18

0.81%

0.81% 2.57%
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund 30.57  

0.22

0.72%

0.72% 1.70%
EWM iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 29.56  

0.17

0.58%

0.58% 0.92%
DXJ WisdomTree Japan Total Dividend Fund 49.01  

0.24

0.49%

0.49% -0.39%
EWY iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund 53.54  

0.25

0.47%

0.47% 0.53%
EWH iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 20.82  

0.08

0.38%

0.39% -1.65%
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund 26.32  

0.09

0.34%

0.34% 1.19%
EWT iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund 30.57  

0.07

0.23%

0.23% -0.55%
EWA iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund 20.73  

0.04

0.19%

0.19% 1.42%
EWX SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF 40.73  

0.04

0.10%

0.10% -1.07%
EWJ iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund 49.56  

-0.06

-0.12%

-0.12% -0.66%
FXI iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 37.26  

-0.05

-0.13%

-0.13% -0.88%

 

Week Ahead – Events and Economic Data

12/7 Wednesday

Time Event / Data
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories

 

12/8 Thursday

Time Event / Data
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims

 

12/9 Friday

Time Event / Data
10:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment

 

 

 

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